策略周报：留意盈利预期修正趋势的变化

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market saw an overall increase last week, with the AH premium rising to nearly 149, prompting investor interest in the establishment of a turning point between offense and defense[1] - The MSCI China Index's 2024 Bloomberg earnings forecast has been broadly revised down by 1.2% from its starting point of 11.05, reversing the upward trend observed since mid-year[2] Earnings Expectations - Only the insurance and telecommunications sectors maintained stable earnings expectations, while other sectors experienced varying degrees of downward revisions[2] - The internet sector, particularly cross-border e-commerce, faced downward pressure on earnings expectations due to concerns over tariffs and energy policies following Trump's administration[2] External Factors - Recent fluctuations in the US dollar index and 10Y Treasury yields suggest a potential easing of overseas liquidity, with the dollar index dropping below 106 and the 10Y yield falling to 4.18%[3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has increased to 71.7%, influenced by lower core PCE inflation and rising unemployment claims[3] Capital Flows - Despite the overall market adjustment, there has been a notable increase in capital repurchases, with the amount reaching HKD 7 billion and the number of cases at 260, close to levels seen in April[4] - Southbound capital inflows amounted to HKD 22.8 billion, with a trading proportion of 36.3%, both at high levels since 2014[4] Investment Strategy - Given the current market conditions, a conservative approach is recommended for Hong Kong stocks, focusing on sectors with stable earnings expectations such as insurance and telecommunications, as well as internet companies sensitive to overseas liquidity[5] - The market is expected to remain in a volatile state due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and external economic factors, necessitating a cautious investment strategy[5]