绿色甲醇发展前景分析：通领域主流替代燃料，融合绿氢发展前景广阔

Investment Rating - The report rates the green methanol industry as "Outperform the Market" [1][2]. Core Viewpoints - Green methanol, produced from renewable energy, is positioned as an ideal alternative fuel with significant growth potential in the transportation sector. The global consumption of methanol reaches 126 million tons annually, with an industry value exceeding 300 billion yuan. The shift towards green methanol is driven by global net-zero emission policies, necessitating a transformation in the methanol industry [1]. - The report highlights the diverse technological pathways for green methanol production, including electrolysis, biomass gasification, and biomass coupled with green hydrogen, with electrolysis expected to become the mainstream technology. Current production costs for electrolysis exceed 4,500 yuan per ton, but there is potential for a cost reduction of over 40% in the future [1]. - The shipping industry faces immense pressure to decarbonize, with green methanol's usage projected to rise significantly. By 2050, the demand for green methanol in shipping could reach 190 million tons, supported by increasing orders for methanol-fueled vessels and favorable policies [1]. - Both domestic and international green methanol projects are emerging, with China focusing on electrolysis technology. Over 100 green methanol projects are planned globally, with more than 70 projects in China, collectively targeting an annual production capacity exceeding 26 million tons [1]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Methanol is a crucial bulk chemical product, widely used in various industries, with China accounting for approximately 60% of global methanol production capacity. In 2023, China's methanol production capacity reached 108 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.8% [18][20]. Production Routes - The report categorizes methanol production into four types based on carbon emissions: brown/black methanol (coal), gray methanol (natural gas), blue methanol (hydrogen with carbon capture), and green methanol (from renewable sources). Green methanol production has near-zero carbon emissions [27][28]. Economic Analysis - Current production costs for green methanol are relatively high, with electrolysis costing around 4,500-4,600 yuan per ton. However, future cost reductions are anticipated, potentially reaching 2,100-2,200 yuan per ton for electrolysis and 1,900-2,000 yuan per ton for biomass coupled with green hydrogen [55][61]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with forward-looking green methanol strategies, particularly Jin Feng Technology and Yun Da Co., which are expected to see significant performance growth post-2026 [1][2].