有色金属脉动跟踪：地缘冲突升级，金价走强

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - Geopolitical conflicts have escalated, leading to a rebound in gold prices, while the strong US dollar is suppressing copper prices despite steady demand [14][15] - High profitability in aluminum is expected to continue, with potential differentiation in green aluminum production [16][17] - The lead and zinc market is experiencing price fluctuations, with attention on smelting production cuts [18] - Tin prices remain under pressure despite increased production expectations from Wa State [21] - Nickel prices are stabilizing at the bottom, with tight supply in the short term [22][23] - Tungsten prices are stable with weak willingness from holders to lower prices [24] - Antimony exports have significantly decreased, but improvements may occur post-policy implementation [25] - Molybdenum prices are fluctuating, with stable steel demand [28] - The rare earth industry is expected to see a value return due to four key factors [29][30] - Titanium market demand is stable, with a slight recovery in sponge titanium prices [32] Summary by Sections Section 1: Updates on Key Points (Nov 18 - Nov 22, 2024) - Precious Metals: Geopolitical tensions have led to a rebound in gold prices, with potential pressure from US interest rate expectations [14] - Industrial Metals: - Copper: Prices are under pressure from a strong dollar, but demand remains steady due to export order rush [15] - Aluminum: High profitability is expected to persist, with a price range forecast of 19,000 to 21,000 RMB/ton [16][17] - Lead and Zinc: Price fluctuations are noted, with a focus on smelting production cuts [18] - Tin: Production recovery in Wa State is anticipated, but prices remain under pressure [21] - Nickel: Prices are stabilizing near cost levels, with tight supply expected [22][23] - Strategic Minor Metals: - Tungsten: Prices are stable, with weak selling pressure from holders [24] - Antimony: Significant export declines noted, with potential for recovery post-policy [25] - Molybdenum: Prices are stable with steady steel demand [28] - Rare Earths: Four factors are expected to support a value return in the industry [29][30] - Titanium: Demand remains stable, with slight price recovery in sponge titanium [32] Section 2: Macroeconomic Trends and Industry Dynamics (Nov 18 - Nov 22, 2024) - Global PMI is declining, influenced by uncertainties from the US presidential election, with manufacturing activity in Asia also stagnating [34][37] - China's manufacturing PMI has rebounded above the 50 mark, indicating recovery, while real estate remains weak [37] Section 3: Metal Prices and Sector Performance (Nov 18 - Nov 22, 2024) - Precious Metals: Gold prices increased by 5.21% to $2,710.50/oz, with significant year-on-year gains [44] - Industrial Metals: Copper prices slightly increased by 0.02% to $8,972.50/ton, while aluminum prices decreased by 1.00% to $2,630/ton [49] - Strategic Minor Metals: Lithium carbonate prices increased by 0.46% to 79,040 RMB/ton, while sponge titanium prices decreased by 2.22% to 44 RMB/kg [56]