农林牧渔行业报告：猪价窄幅震荡，10月产能低增长

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [6][5]. Core Views - The industry index for agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery increased by 3.24%, ranking 11th among 31 primary industries in the market [8][17]. - The pig price is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with the national average price hovering around 16.5-16.6 yuan/kg, indicating a limited downward trend [9][23]. - The white feather chicken market is facing a shortage of chicks, leading to sustained high prices in the short term, with the chick price at 4.7 yuan/chick [10][39]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry index rose by 3.24%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index, which increased by 1.32% and 1.81% respectively [17][20]. 2. Livestock Industry Chain Tracking 2.1 Pigs: Price Fluctuations and Slow Capacity Growth - The average profit for self-bred pigs is approximately 196 yuan per head, while purchased piglets incur a loss of 9 yuan per head [24][26]. - The breeding stock as of October shows a year-on-year decrease of 3.20%, with only a 2.18% recovery in capacity over six months [26][27]. 2.2 White Feather Chicken: Short-term High Prices - The chick price remains strong due to a shortage caused by reduced overseas breeding in 2022 and 2023, with expectations for continued high prices until mid-December [10][39]. - The domestic breeding stock has increased by 19.22% year-on-year, but imported varieties remain limited due to avian influenza [10][39]. 3. Planting Industry Chain Tracking - Sugar prices have slightly rebounded, with the price in Liuzhou at 6155 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton [45]. - The price of soybeans has decreased by 2.4%, with the current price at 3667 yuan/ton [45]. - Cotton prices have adjusted downwards to 15197 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2% [45]. - Corn prices have slightly declined to 2162 yuan/ton, down by 2 yuan/ton [45].