建筑：央企龙头集中度继续提升

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [6] Core Viewpoints - The construction industry is experiencing a continuous decline in new orders, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.74% as of September 30, 2024, totaling 22.32 trillion yuan [7] - The decline in new orders is attributed to the ongoing downturn in the real estate sector and slow progress on related projects by local governments [7] - The market share of the seven major state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in the construction sector continues to rise, reaching 42.87% by the end of Q3 2024, an increase of 0.42 percentage points year-on-year [9] - Despite the overall decline in new orders, some leading SOEs like China State Construction and China Communications Construction have shown growth in new orders, with increases of 4.68% and 9.28% respectively [8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The total market capitalization of the industry is approximately 1,905.28 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.01% increase [3] - The average price-to-earnings ratio for the industry stands at 10.6 [5] Performance of Major SOEs - The total new orders for the seven major SOEs amounted to 10.27 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decline of 3.13%, which is less than the overall industry decline [8] - Specific companies like China Railway, China Railway Construction, and China Metallurgical Group have seen significant declines in new orders, with decreases of 15.22%, 17.51%, and 9.19% respectively [8] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the construction industry may see improvements in demand due to the issuance of special bonds by local governments and ongoing real estate policy adjustments [12] - Recommendations include focusing on leading SOEs such as China Communications Construction, China State Construction, China Chemical Engineering, and China Electric Power Construction [12]