建筑材料行业2025年度投资策略：政策利好持续出台，供需格局预期向好

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the building materials industry is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The building materials industry faced overall performance pressure in the first three quarters of 2024 due to a continued downturn in the real estate market, leading to weak demand for major building materials [5][22] - Favorable real estate policies have been frequently introduced since the beginning of 2024, which are expected to drive marginal improvements in the real estate market [5][57] - The progress of infrastructure projects in 2024 has been slow, but the "debt replacement" policy is expected to provide momentum for infrastructure development [5][74] - The report suggests focusing on two main lines: (1) Demand improvement for building materials driven by favorable real estate and infrastructure policies, and (2) Improvement in supply-demand dynamics in industries such as cement, glass, and fiberglass [5][81] Summary by Sections 1. Overall Performance Pressure in the Building Materials Industry - In the first three quarters of 2024, the 55 covered building materials companies achieved a total revenue of 475.547 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 12.13%, and a net profit of 14.233 billion yuan, down 52.57% year-on-year [22] - All sub-sectors experienced declines in revenue and net profit, indicating overall industry pressure [22] 2. Favorable Real Estate Policies - A series of favorable policies have been introduced to support the real estate market, focusing on both supply and demand sides [5][57] - Key policies include financing coordination mechanisms, urban renewal initiatives, and adjustments to housing loan policies [55][60] 3. Slow Infrastructure Progress and Debt Replacement Policies - Infrastructure project progress has been slow, with low operating rates for asphalt and cement compared to previous years [74] - The "6+4+2" debt replacement policy aims to alleviate local government debt pressure and accelerate infrastructure project construction [74] 4. Focus on Policy-Driven Demand and Supply-Demand Improvement - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the impact of favorable policies on demand for building materials, particularly in the consumer building materials, cement, and glass sectors [5][81] - It also highlights the potential for supply-demand improvements in cement, glass, and fiberglass industries [5][84]