工程机械：CME预测11月挖掘机销售增长13%，上海宝马展盛况空前

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [3] Core Insights - Excavator demand is continuously recovering, with CME predicting a 13% increase in excavator sales in November [2] - Domestic sales are expected to reach approximately 8,600 units, a year-on-year increase of 15%, driven by new replacement cycles and supportive real estate policies [3] - Export sales are projected at around 8,300 units, reflecting a 12% year-on-year growth due to inventory adjustments and mild recovery in overseas demand [3] - The recent Bauma exhibition attracted 3542 exhibitors from 32 countries, indicating strong international interest [3] - The government is expected to enhance counter-cyclical fiscal policies to stabilize the real estate market and stimulate infrastructure investment [4] Summary by Sections Domestic Demand - The domestic market is showing signs of recovery, with a forecast of 53,000 excavators sold in H1 2024, a 4.66% year-on-year increase [4] - The demand for equipment replacement is expected to accelerate due to environmental policies and subsidies, with significant growth anticipated post-2025 [4] International Demand - In the first half of 2024, China's engineering machinery exports are projected to reach $25.837 billion, a 3.38% year-on-year increase [4] - The global market is three times larger than the domestic market, with a stable competitive landscape dominated by major players like Caterpillar and Komatsu [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, LiuGong, and Shantui, as domestic demand continues to recover and export markets expand [4]