海外周报：美国11月非农料反弹至20万

Economic Growth - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for November are expected to rebound significantly to approximately 200,000 from 12,000 in October, primarily due to the resolution of Boeing mechanics' strikes and the impact of Hurricane Milton fading[1] - The GDPNow model predicts a GDP growth rate of +2.69% for Q4 2024, down from a previous estimate of +2.80%[3] Inflation Trends - The November CPI year-on-year growth is projected to rebound to +2.7%, supported by low base effects and persistent inflationary pressures[1] - The Cleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcasting predicts the November CPI to increase by +0.26% month-on-month and +2.70% year-on-year, with core CPI expected to rise by +0.27% month-on-month and +3.30% year-on-year[4] Federal Reserve Outlook - Market expectations indicate a 66% probability of a 25bps rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, influenced by economic resilience and ongoing inflationary pressures[1] - The FOMC dot plot is anticipated to become more hawkish due to sustained growth and inflation persistence[1] Employment Insights - The forecast for November non-farm employment is supported by the recovery from the Boeing strike, which had a negative contribution of 40,000 jobs in October, and the impact of Hurricane Milton, which affected survey response rates[2] - The strong forecast for November non-farm payrolls is also bolstered by the marginal easing of the restrictive monetary environment following recent Fed rate cuts[2]