2024年11月PMI数据点评：11月制造业景气度继续温和回升

Manufacturing Sector Insights - In November 2024, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 50.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a continued recovery in manufacturing sentiment[2] - The New Orders Index within the manufacturing PMI reached 50.8%, up 0.8 percentage points, marking its first entry into the expansion zone in nearly seven months, significantly contributing to the overall PMI improvement[3] - The Production Index increased to 52.4%, up 0.4 percentage points, reflecting a boost in manufacturing output driven by improved market demand[4] Economic Policy Impact - The positive trends in manufacturing are attributed to the effectiveness of existing and new economic policies, including a 150 billion yuan special bond to support durable goods and tax reductions in the real estate sector[4] - High-frequency data indicates strong export performance, contributing to the demand side of manufacturing[4] - The Production Expectations Index rose to 54.7%, up 0.7 percentage points, indicating growing confidence among manufacturers regarding future market conditions[8] Price and Demand Dynamics - The Ex-factory Price Index fell by 2.2 percentage points to 47.7%, while the Purchasing Price Index dropped by 3.6 percentage points to 49.8%, entering the contraction zone, reflecting downward pressure from international oil prices and domestic raw material costs[8] - Over 60% of enterprises reported insufficient demand, suggesting that the overall economic recovery remains moderate despite the PMI increase[8] Service and Construction Sector Performance - The Non-Manufacturing PMI remained stable at 50.0%, with the Services PMI at 50.1%, indicating continued expansion in the service sector[9] - The Construction PMI fell to 49.7%, down 0.7 percentage points, entering the contraction zone for the first time since March 2020, primarily due to ongoing low real estate investment activities[9] Future Outlook - The December manufacturing PMI is expected to remain in the expansion zone at around 50.4%, indicating a significant improvement in macroeconomic conditions compared to Q3[10] - The forecast for Q4 GDP growth is approximately 5.3%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from Q3, supporting the annual growth target of around 5.0%[10] - The sustainability of the economic recovery hinges on the real estate market stabilizing and potential changes in the external trade environment in 2025[11][13]