2025年A股投资策略展望：“内循环牛”和“科技成长牛”

Market Outlook for 2025 - The A-share market in 2025 will be influenced by three key underlying logics: the pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, the Trump trade, and domestic macroeconomic policy space [2] - The Federal Reserve's rate cuts will impact A-shares through three dimensions: policy space, fundamentals, and liquidity, benefiting Chinese assets [3] - Trump's re-election and his aggressive trade policies, including increased tariffs and tech restrictions, will push China to strengthen domestic demand policies and tech self-reliance [2] - Domestic macroeconomic policies will focus on fiscal expansion to address weak demand and fiscal deficits, making 2025 a significant fiscal year [2] Market Style and Sector Rotation - In 2025, large-cap stocks are expected to outperform small-cap stocks, with growth sectors like technology leading the market [4] - The market style will shift from valuation-driven to earnings-driven, favoring large-cap stocks due to their relative advantages [4] - Technology growth stocks will benefit from looser global liquidity, with their valuation expansion depending on policy support and earnings expectations [4] - Domestic demand cyclical sectors will see opportunities based on the pace of fiscal stimulus, while dividend assets may have limited excess returns [4] Industry Allocation: Domestic Circulation and Tech Growth - The 2025 industry allocation will focus on domestic circulation and tech growth, driven by policies to boost domestic demand and tech self-reliance [5] - Key areas in domestic circulation include consumer electronics, industrial automation, and new growth points in consumption such as emotional economy and domestic brands [5] - In tech self-reliance, focus areas include AI, autonomous driving, new energy technologies, and breakthroughs in "choke point" technologies like chip manufacturing [5] - Expanding openness will benefit sectors like cross-border e-commerce, digital trade, and inbound tourism [5] Theme Investment: M&A Opportunities - The "Six M&A Rules" will restart the M&A cycle, with policy support for industrial upgrading and local equity fiscal development [6] - State-owned enterprises will focus on strategic restructuring and professional integration, while private enterprises will target cross-border M&A for new productivity development [6] 2024 Market Recap - In 2024, the A-share market formed a "double bottom" and rebounded after macro policy shifts, with the Wind All-A Index rising 12.2% by November 29 [10] - The market was characterized by weak domestic demand and strong overseas inflation, with Trump's re-election and geopolitical tensions adding uncertainty [10] - Liquidity improved after macro policy shifts in September, with ETFs being a significant source of incremental funds [10] - Large-cap and value stocks outperformed, with tech and small-cap stocks gaining momentum later in the year [12] Valuation and Earnings - The Wind All-A Index's P/E ratio rose to 18.5, at the 60th percentile since 2010, with core assets like the CSI 300 seeing significant valuation expansion [16] - The ChiNext Index remains undervalued, with sectors like new energy and healthcare still trading at low historical percentiles [16] - Earnings for the A-share market (excluding financials) are expected to grow by 2.0% in 2025, with profitability improving due to supply-demand dynamics [5] Policy and Fiscal Outlook - Fiscal policy will play a crucial role in 2025, with incremental policies expected to boost domestic demand and address fiscal gaps [85] - Measures like debt restructuring and increased fiscal spending will support economic recovery, with potential for additional special bonds to stimulate consumption [94] - Export growth may slow in 2025 due to Trump's trade policies, prompting further fiscal support to maintain economic growth targets [100] Real Estate and Investment - Real estate investment is expected to stabilize, with policies aimed at reducing mortgage rates and supporting the housing market [113] - Manufacturing and infrastructure will replace real estate as key drivers of investment, with fiscal stimulus supporting infrastructure growth [107] - The real estate sector's share of GDP has declined significantly, suggesting limited further downside [117]