Group 1 - The report indicates that China's total economic support policies are clear, reducing risks from broad fiscal and real estate sectors on the economy. If commodity and service consumption continue to expand, combined with improvements in industrial profits, it may signal a positive feedback loop in domestic circulation [2][12][13] - The resilience of the US economy is highlighted, with interest rate-sensitive sectors providing support to the economy. The report notes that the US PCE inflation aligns with expectations, indicating a stable economic environment [2][18][19] - The long-term trend for China is identified as an expansion in the service sector, a contraction in traditional manufacturing, and an acceleration of self-sufficiency and the Belt and Road Initiative [2][12][13] Group 2 - Industrial enterprise profit growth has significantly improved, with October's year-on-year profit growth at -10%, a substantial increase from the previous -27.1% [12][13] - The report emphasizes that the improvement in industrial profits is particularly notable in upstream raw material processing and midstream manufacturing sectors, with industries like black metallurgy and chemical fiber manufacturing showing stable prices and improved profit margins [12][13] - The market is characterized by clear trading features, with expectations of a shift towards large-cap value styles in the future [2][27][30] Group 3 - The report notes that consumer and healthcare sectors are leading in performance, while cyclical sectors show less growth. Specific industries such as entertainment products and kitchen appliances are outperforming, while others like black appliances and commercial vehicles are lagging [39][41] - The report highlights that foreign capital in index futures is showing a reduction in net short positions for IC and IM, while IF and IH maintain a stable trend [48][49] - Upcoming key economic indicators include US PMI and non-farm payroll data, which are expected to provide insights into economic trends [54][55]
产业经济周观点：内循环有望开始正反馈
Huafu Securities·2024-12-02 08:20