东吴证券：晨会纪要-20241202

Macro Strategy - The report predicts that the US economy will enter the second half of a soft landing in 2025, with stable growth around 2% but inflation may not reach the expected 2.2% by the end of the year, complicating the anticipated 125bps rate cut [1][14] - The economic cycle is characterized by simultaneous and rapid changes in both supply and demand, with the output gap decreasing from a historical peak of +6.9% in 2021-22 to +0.1% in 2023, while maintaining stable growth [1][14] Credit Strategy - The report identifies key characteristics of the domestic bond market as "indirectness," "nationalization," "faith-based," "long-term," and "low interest rate," highlighting a shift from direct corporate bond issuance to indirect borrowing through banks [2][16] - The pricing of local government enterprise bonds has shifted to focus on liquidity risk rather than credit risk, with the S-T correlation coefficient for local state-owned enterprises rising to 0.7-0.8 [2][16] Company Analysis: Pengding Holdings (002938) - The company is positioned to benefit from the AI wave, with a focus on flexible printed circuits (FPC) which are expected to see significant growth due to increased demand from major clients [7][23] - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 35 billion, 41 billion, and 47 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 20, 17, and 15 times, leading to a "buy" rating [7][23] Company Analysis: Daotong Technology (688208) - The company has established a subsidiary focused on robotics and AI, targeting energy, security, and transportation sectors to provide integrated solutions [8][11] - Profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are estimated at 6.2 billion, 7.2 billion, and 9.2 billion yuan, with a "buy" rating maintained [8][11] Company Analysis: Yutong Optical (300790) - Yutong Optical is a leader in the global security lens market, with a diversified business structure that includes automotive optics as a new growth point [11][11] - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 1.99 billion yuan, a 34% increase year-on-year, with a projected profit of 1.3 billion yuan, up 221% [11][11] Company Analysis: Baidu Group-SW (09888.HK) - The company reported weaker-than-expected profits for Q3 2024, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts for 2024-2026 [11][11] - The stock maintains a "buy" rating despite the challenges faced in the advertising sector [11][11]