可持续航空燃料（二）：SAF供需格局和盈利性如何？

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the industry [10] Core Viewpoints - The EU's import demand for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is relatively certain by 2030, with potential export opportunities for China due to its strong carbon reduction effects and advanced biofuel status [5][6] - The profitability of bio-jet fuel projects is analyzed, with a focus on the HEFA (Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids) technology, which currently dominates the market [7] - The report highlights the impact of EU anti-dumping measures on China's biodiesel exports and the potential for cost improvements in the sector [8][9] Supply and Demand Analysis - By 2025, the total operational capacity of bio-jet fuel in Europe/EU is expected to reach 1.63/1.54 million tons per year, increasing to 5.15/3.88 million tons per year by 2030 [5] - EU SAF demand is projected to reach 960,000 tons/year in 2025 and 3.11 million tons/year in 2030, based on a 2%/6% blending ratio [5] - In 2025, EU import demand could range from 39,000 to 250,000 tons depending on the recovery of jet fuel demand and local capacity utilization rates [6] - By 2030, EU import demand is expected to be around 780,000 tons under a base scenario, with potential increases to 1.17-1.35 million tons under different sensitivity analyses [6][29] Profitability Analysis - A 1 million tons/year waste oil-to-bio-jet fuel project is modeled, showing an annual revenue of 4.78 billion yuan, with a first-year net profit of 370 million yuan and a net profit margin of 7.8% [7] - Under a base scenario with 50% capacity utilization, the project achieves a net profit of 1,011 yuan/ton and a capital IRR of 17.4% [7] - Sensitivity analysis shows that increasing capacity utilization to 90% could raise the profit per ton of SAF to 1,656 yuan/ton [7] - If bio-jet fuel prices rise to 16,000 yuan/ton while waste oil prices remain at 7,500 yuan/ton, the profit per ton could increase to 2,582 yuan/ton [7] Biodiesel Export Challenges - China's biodiesel exports have been significantly impacted by EU anti-dumping measures, with a 40.4% year-on-year decline in exports from January to October 2024 [8] - The average export price of biodiesel in 2024 was 7,550 yuan/ton, down 12.9% year-on-year [8] - The cancellation of UCO (Used Cooking Oil) export tax rebates in China has led to a reduction in domestic UCO prices, potentially improving the profitability of UCOME (Used Cooking Oil Methyl Ester) producers [8][57] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies involved in the production of bio-jet fuel and raw materials, such as Excellence New Energy, due to the strong EU import demand and the industry's upward trend [9][59] - For biodiesel, the report suggests monitoring the sustainability of cost improvements following the cancellation of UCO export tax rebates [9]