家用电器行业投资策略周报：12月白电排产亮眼，湖北率先组织25年国补报名

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Hold" [4] Core Viewpoints - The white goods sector shows stable growth with a projected production increase of 21.7% year-on-year for December 2024, totaling 33.98 million units across air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines [27][30] - Hubei province has initiated the registration process for merchants to participate in the 2025 national subsidy program for household appliances, providing clear guidelines for interested businesses [42] Summary by Sections Production Data - December 2024 production for air conditioners is expected to reach 17.9 million units, a 31.7% increase year-on-year, with domestic sales up 15.0% and exports up 48.5% [27][30] - Refrigerator production is projected at 8.6 million units, reflecting a 15.0% year-on-year increase, with domestic sales rising 19.0% and exports increasing by 12.5% [33] - Washing machine production is estimated at 7.48 million units, a 9.0% increase year-on-year, with domestic sales up 4.1% and exports up 7.6% [37] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in Haier Smart Home (A/H) and Hisense Home Appliances (A/H) due to their stable ROE and high dividend advantages, as well as potential benefits from the old-for-new policy [2][45] - Other recommended companies benefiting from the old-for-new policy and domestic demand recovery include Hisense Visual, Aima Technology, Yadea Holdings, and XGIMI Technology [2][45] Market Performance - From November 25 to November 29, 2024, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.3%, while the home appliance sector index increased by 0.1% [2][49] - The black appliance index decreased by 6.1%, and the white appliance index fell by 0.1% during the same period [2][49] Retail Data - For the week of November 18 to November 24, 2024, offline sales of air conditioners increased by 74.1% year-on-year, while online sales rose by 84.0% [3][51] - Refrigerator offline sales grew by 33.5% year-on-year, and online sales increased by 18.4% [3][51] - Washing machine offline sales saw a 23.9% year-on-year increase, with online sales up 33.9% [3][51]