地产行业周报：11月成交同环比改善，房价降幅连续收窄
ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2024-12-02 08:10

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The market activity index for the top 50 cities decreased to 16.8, down 1 point week-on-week, marking two consecutive weeks of decline. However, the activity in 10 cities increased, with Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Changsha seeing rises of over 2 points [3] - The rolling month-on-month decline in the second-hand housing price index for the top 50 cities narrowed to -0.13%, a decrease of 0.14 percentage points from the previous week, indicating a continuous reduction in the rate of price decline over four weeks [4] - New and second-hand housing transaction volumes increased, with new housing transaction area in 30 key cities reaching 3.52 million square meters, up 23.6% week-on-week, and second-hand housing transaction area in 13 key cities reaching 2.4 million square meters, up 4.3% week-on-week [5] Summary by Sections Market Activity - The activity index for the top 50 cities is currently at 16.8, with first-tier cities averaging 29.5, new first-tier cities at 19.0, and second-tier cities at 14.3. The decline in second-tier city activity has negatively impacted the overall index [3][16] Price Trends - The rolling month-on-month decline in the second-hand housing price index has narrowed, with five cities experiencing price increases. The cumulative decline since the new policy on September 26 is 1.67%, with cities like Shenzhen and Chengdu showing signs of price stabilization [4][8] Policy Developments - Recent policy announcements include the cancellation of ordinary housing standards in Chongqing and the emphasis on improving housing quality in Guizhou, which aims to accelerate the construction of high-quality housing [6][9] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading real estate companies such as Vanke A, China Overseas Development, and Poly Developments, as well as intermediary firms like Beike and Wo Ai Wo Jia, due to expected performance exceeding market expectations [10]