HUAXIN CEMENT(600801) 东方财富·2024-12-02 10:15Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating [8] Core Views - Optimistic about the price elasticity of the cement industry in 2025, with overseas expansion solidifying long-term growth logic [1] - The company is expected to benefit from rising cement prices in the short term, with overseas capacity expansion further strengthening its long-term growth logic [1] - The company's dividend yield is 4.1% (excluding mergers and acquisitions and Q4 price increases), indicating excellent allocation value [1] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Cement prices have rebounded in Q4 2024 due to increased production curtailment in regions like the Yangtze River Delta, Hubei, and Chongqing, with prices rising by over 100 yuan/ton [1] - High-grade cement prices in these regions have surpassed the Q4 2023 peak, indicating potential price elasticity in 2025 if demand recovers and production curtailment continues [1] African Market Expansion - The company is optimistic about the African cement market, particularly in Nigeria, where per capita cement consumption is 140 kg and is expected to rise with Belt and Road projects [3] - Nigeria's cement market is highly concentrated, with the top three companies holding significant market share, and the company's acquisition is expected to enhance operational performance and create substantial merger value [3] - The acquisition of Lafarge Africa Plc's cement assets in Nigeria, with a total capacity of 10.6 million tons, is a strategic move to enter Africa's largest economy and expand its presence in northern and western Africa [4] - The acquired assets generated 57 million in net profit in 2023, accounting for 9.4% and 12.4% of the company's total revenue and net profit, respectively [4] - The acquisition price is approximately 20.6x 2024E PE, and the acquired company's revenue represents 57.6% of the company's overseas revenue in 2023 [4] Financial Performance - The company's total market capitalization is 269.85 billion yuan, with a circulating market capitalization of 174.49 billion yuan [6] - The 52-week high/low stock price is 16.09/9.91 yuan, with a 52-week high/low PE of 15.60/8.20 and a 52-week high/low PB of 1.14/0.73 [6] - The 52-week stock price increase is 1.28%, with a turnover rate of 164.29% [6] Earnings Forecast - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 2.21 billion yuan in 2024, 2.80 billion yuan in 2025, and 3.05 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding PE ratios of 12.21x, 9.62x, and 8.86x [12] - Revenue is forecasted to grow from 33.76 billion yuan in 2023 to 39.76 billion yuan in 2026, with a growth rate of 10.79% in 2023, 7.97% in 2024, 6.32% in 2025, and 2.61% in 2026 [12] - EBITDA is projected to increase from 8.44 billion yuan in 2023 to 10.30 billion yuan in 2026 [12]