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电子行业2025年度投资策略:人工智能创新持续推进,半导体自主可控方兴未艾
中原证券·2024-12-02 12:06

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Stronger than the Market" rating for the electronics industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3] Core Views - The semiconductor industry has entered a new upward cycle, driven by AI innovation and demand recovery, with expectations for continued growth in 2025 [5] - AI innovation is extending from cloud to edge devices, with AI-powered smartphones, PCs, and wearables expected to lead a new wave of innovation [5] - The semiconductor industry's recovery is expected to continue, with a focus on domestic substitution in key areas of the supply chain [12] Cloud-Side AI and Semiconductor Industry - AI model iterations are driving demand for cloud-side AI computing infrastructure, with significant growth in AI server and hardware demand [6] - The semiconductor industry is in an upward cycle, with global semiconductor sales growing 23.2% YoY in September 2024, and WSTS forecasting 16% growth for 2024 and 12.5% for 2025 [10] - AI servers are expected to drive demand for high-speed, multi-layer PCBs, with Nvidia's GB200 NVL72 solution increasing demand for high-speed copper cables and connectors [6] Edge-Side AI and Consumer Electronics - Edge-side AI is accelerating, with AI smartphones and PCs expected to drive a new innovation cycle, with penetration rates predicted to reach 28% and 43% respectively by 2025 [7] - Consumer electronics demand is recovering, with global smartphone shipments growing 5% YoY in Q3 2024, and PC shipments growing 1.3% YoY, with further growth expected in 2025 [11] - AI smartphones and PCs are driving demand for higher memory capacity, with 16GB DRAM becoming the standard for next-gen AI devices [118] Domestic Semiconductor Substitution - The semiconductor supply chain faces urgent needs for domestic substitution in key areas such as advanced manufacturing, packaging, and computing chips, with domestic companies expected to benefit [12] - Domestic semiconductor equipment and components are seeing rapid growth, with Chinese semiconductor equipment sales growing 62% YoY in Q2 2024 [10] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on cloud-side AI computing chips, edge-side AI, and semiconductor domestic substitution, highlighting companies like Haiguang Information, Luxshare Precision, and North Huachuang [13]