电力及公用事业行业年度策略：做耐心资本，长期拥抱价值

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electric power and utilities industry [2][5]. Core Insights - The electric power and utilities industry demonstrates strong defensive characteristics and stable performance, with a revenue of 1,874.802 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.19%, and a net profit of 194.686 billion yuan, up 9.67% year-on-year [4][20]. - The investment value of electric operators has been reassessed in the market, with nuclear and hydropower showing strong performance in the secondary market, supported by the industry's fundamentals and its defensive nature in a complex economic environment [5][32]. - The ongoing market-oriented reforms in the electric, water, and gas utility sectors are accelerating, with a focus on green and low-carbon transitions in the power supply structure and sustained high growth in power demand [5][34]. Summary by Sections 1. Market and Performance Review - The electric power and utilities index increased by 11.75% as of November 25, 2024, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 13.87% [4][20]. - The industry shows a strong defensive nature with stable growth in performance, as evidenced by the revenue and profit figures for 2024 [20][26]. 2. Thermal Power: Enhanced Utility Attributes - The thermal power sector is experiencing a transformation towards peak-shaving power sources, with a notable decline in coal power generation due to increased hydropower output [36][40]. - The average on-grid electricity price for major thermal power companies has decreased, reflecting the impact of market-oriented pricing mechanisms [46][49]. 3. Hydropower: Focus on Long-term Investment Value - Hydropower remains a strong sector with a gross profit margin of 58.16% and a net profit margin of 43.87% in the first three quarters of 2024, both showing year-on-year improvements [27][28]. - The sector benefits from favorable water conditions and a decrease in financial costs, leading to a significant increase in net profit growth [26][27]. 4. Other Power Generation: Price Impact from Grid Parity Projects - The rapid increase in installed capacity for renewable energy is accompanied by intensified competition, leading to a decline in average on-grid electricity prices [6][28]. - Nuclear power is positioned for growth with the approval of new units expected to accelerate operations, while the sector is also seeing a consolidation of platforms for nuclear power operations [6][8]. 5. Investment Rating and Key Targets - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on hydropower and nuclear power operators, as they contribute significantly to the industry's net profits [6][8]. - The investment strategy highlights the potential for stable growth in nuclear power, similar to hydropower, as the sector matures [6][8].