2025年光伏行业年度策略：市场出清，周期筑底

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the solar industry [6]. Core Insights - The solar industry is currently experiencing a downturn due to overcapacity, leading to significant price declines and widespread losses among companies. However, the industry is expected to reach a bottom as supply and demand dynamics improve, particularly with the elimination of outdated production capacity [5][6][28]. - In 2024, the domestic solar market is projected to see a slowdown in demand growth, with an expected increase in installed capacity of 240.88GW to 255.88GW, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.07% to 17.98% [42][43]. - The report highlights the importance of focusing on leading companies in various segments, such as polysilicon, solar glass, integrated components, and solar encapsulants, as they are likely to benefit from the industry's recovery [6][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance and Outlook - The solar sector has underperformed the broader market, with a decline of 7.59% in the solar industry index as of November 18, 2024. The industry is facing challenges due to overcapacity and intense competition, leading to price drops and losses [21][25]. - The report anticipates that the industry will enter a phase of capacity clearance and stabilization in 2025, driven by improved market conditions and technological advancements [28][36]. 2. Industry Review and 2025 Outlook - The report notes that the solar industry has been in a prolonged down cycle, with significant losses reported across major segments. For instance, the total revenue for 72 major A-share solar companies fell by 19.70% year-on-year in 2024 [36]. - Looking ahead to 2025, the report expects a steady increase in global solar installation demand, particularly in emerging markets, while traditional markets like Europe and North America are projected to maintain stable growth [43][44]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong financial reserves and technological advantages, particularly in the integrated solar component sector, such as LONGi Green Energy and JinkoSolar [10][6]. - Specific companies recommended for investment include Daqo New Energy, Flat Glass Group, JinkoSolar, Canadian Solar, and Foster Electric, as they are well-positioned to navigate the current market challenges [6][10].