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基础化工行业投资策略周报:11月制造业PMI指数向好,百菌清价格上涨
GF SECURITIES·2024-12-02 12:36

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Buy" [6] Core Viewpoints - The SW basic chemical sector rose by 1.49% from November 25 to November 29, underperforming the Wind All A Index by 0.66 percentage points. Sub-industries such as nylon, viscose, phosphate fertilizer, and phosphate chemicals showed better performance [23][35] - The report highlights a transition from supply constraints to supply optimization, driven by high global oil prices and reduced capital expenditure in upstream energy sectors. Resource-based industries like titanium and phosphate are facing supply-demand mismatches due to expansion cycles and demand release [23] - New technologies and materials are emerging, including synthetic biology, vacuum materials, and lubricating oil additives, which are expected to drive growth in the industry [23][24] - A demand release inflection point is anticipated, with many chemical products' price spreads having returned to historical lows. If demand improves, it could significantly impact product price spreads, particularly in agriculture and vitamins [24][25] Summary by Sections 1. Overall Industry View - The basic chemical sector is experiencing a positive trend, with specific sub-industries outperforming the broader market. The report emphasizes the importance of supply optimization and the impact of new policies on the industry [23] 2. Key Sub-Industry Information Tracking - MDI market is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with ongoing maintenance affecting production. The TDI market is also weak due to low downstream orders, while the polyester filament market is experiencing a decline in demand and production [26][29][30] 3. Data Tracking - The report tracks industry performance, macroeconomic data, and downstream data, indicating a mixed outlook for various chemical products. Price fluctuations are noted, with significant declines in certain products [35][70]