有色金属行业周报：宏观政策博弈密集期，关注铜铝反弹机会

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector, recommending a focus on companies such as China Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jincheng Mining [1][4]. Core Views - Recent adjustments in basic metals, particularly copper and aluminum, are attributed to a strong US dollar and a temporary policy vacuum following the implementation of domestic debt resolution plans. Anticipation of accelerated macroeconomic policies in December could present short-term rebound opportunities for copper and aluminum prices. Long-term, prices are expected to gradually rise due to sustained high demand from manufacturing and new energy sectors [4][5]. - The aluminum sector is facing profit pressures due to rising alumina costs and seasonal demand declines, despite stable production capacity. The report suggests monitoring companies like China Aluminum and Shenhuo Co. for potential investment opportunities [5][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance Review - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a decline of 0.61%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.42 percentage points [22]. 2. Industrial Metals Fundamentals Tracking 2.1 Aluminum - Alumina prices continue to rise, while the aluminum industry faces profit pressures during the off-season. The report notes a potential for production cuts due to these pressures [5][29]. 2.2 Copper - Copper prices are expected to remain volatile, with a slight increase in copper concentrate market prices observed. The report highlights a stable supply-demand balance, suggesting limited downside for copper prices [4][53]. 3. Precious Metals Fundamentals Tracking - Gold prices have shown fluctuations influenced by geopolitical events, with a recent retreat followed by a minor rebound. The report recommends focusing on companies like Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining and Shandong Gold for investment [4][5]. 4. Energy Metals and Rare Earths Fundamentals Tracking - Lithium carbonate prices have slightly decreased, but the report indicates a stable demand from battery manufacturers, suggesting a cautious outlook for lithium prices in the short term. Companies like Yongxing Materials and Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet are highlighted for potential investment [4][5]. 5. Industry Weekly Dynamics - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic indicators and policy developments, which could significantly impact the non-ferrous metals market in the coming months [4][5].