生物柴油行业（三）：SAF元年开启，得“废油”者得天下

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The biodiesel industry is experiencing a golden development period driven by the "dual carbon" goals, with increasing mandatory blending ratios in Europe leading to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22% in consumption from 800,000 tons in 2000 to 42.2 million tons in 2020 [1][16] - The demand for biodiesel is expected to stabilize at around 40 million tons per year, transitioning from a growth phase to a mature phase due to factors such as electric vehicle adoption and European policy impacts [1][32] - The Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) initiative is anticipated to create significant market demand, with the EU requiring that SAF constitutes 2% of aviation fuel by 2025 and 63% by 2050, translating to a potential demand exceeding 43 million tons per year [1][39][42] Summary by Sections 1. The Rise and Fall of Biodiesel in Europe - The EU's commitment to reducing emissions has led to a significant increase in the mandatory blending ratios for biodiesel, resulting in a robust growth period for the industry [1][16] - From 2017 to 2022, China's biodiesel and waste oil exports grew at CAGRs of 60% and 36%, respectively, due to high demand in Europe [1][21] 2. The Arrival of SAF Era - The SAF market is set to expand significantly, with major players like UOP and Shell accelerating their production line setups [1][39] - Companies with access to waste oil resources are expected to benefit the most from this new demand cycle, particularly waste management firms like Langkun Environment [1][39] 3. Key Recommendations - Companies such as Langkun Environment, Huanlan Environment, and Junxin Co. are highlighted as key investment opportunities due to their strategic positions in the biodiesel supply chain and their ability to leverage waste oil resources [1][39]