金属及金属新材料行业12月策略：黄金年终表现可期

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Buy" [4] Core Viewpoints - Base metals: Demand expectations are stable, awaiting macroeconomic recovery to drive base metal price increases. Since November, the strong dollar due to the Trump trade has raised tariff concerns, leading to a continued pullback in base metal prices. The focus in December will be on the implementation pace and strength of domestic incremental policies and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. A demand off-season is expected, with base metal prices fluctuating while waiting for further macroeconomic improvement. Recommended stocks include Luoyang Molybdenum (A+H), Western Mining, Jincheng Mining, China Hongqiao (H), Yunnan Aluminum, and Tianshan Aluminum [35][36][41]. - Steel: Supply and demand weakened in November, with price and profit margins declining. According to Wind, the profitability of steel mills fell by 9 percentage points to 52% in November, which may constrain supply. Demand from Shanghai's rebar procurement decreased. Future macroeconomic policies are expected to improve demand expectations. Cost pressures are limited due to constrained iron and steel supply. Steel prices are expected to stabilize in December. Recommended stocks include Baosteel, Hesteel, Jiuli Special Materials, and Yongjin Shares [40][41]. - Precious metals: Gold prices are expected to fluctuate upwards amid the interplay of U.S. interest rate cuts and inflation expectations. The U.S. core PCE in October rose by 2.8%, the largest increase since April 2024. The Federal Reserve's November meeting minutes indicated confidence in easing inflation and a strong labor market, with gradual rate cuts expected. As of November 30, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is 66%, up from the previous week. After a pullback from recent highs, gold prices are stabilizing and are expected to benefit from their financial attributes and anti-inflation characteristics. Recommended stocks include Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Zhaojin Mining (H), Shandong Gold (A+H), Zhongjin Gold, and Shanjin International [42][43]. - Energy metals: Short-term demand expectations are well established, but lithium prices are expected to weaken slightly. In November, lithium carbonate maintained a destocking trend, with upstream prices firm and downstream demand primarily driven by necessity. Looking ahead to December, the current destocking rate has narrowed, and the market's short-term demand expectations are robust. However, due to previous hedging opportunities for lithium salt plants, lithium prices are expected to face downward pressure, although the extent of price decline is limited due to easing supply surplus expectations. Recommended stocks include Ganfeng Lithium (A+H), Shengxin Lithium Energy, and Huayou Cobalt [44]. - Minor metals: In November, tungsten prices rose, while expectations for tungsten and molybdenum prices are stable in December. The disturbance from Myanmar's mines may be coming to an end, and in the off-season, rare earth prices are expected to weaken slightly in December. Tungsten prices increased in November due to a tight supply-demand balance and strong upstream pricing intentions, while molybdenum prices fell due to reduced demand from steel tenders. Molybdenum prices are expected to fluctuate in December. Recommended stocks include Jinchuan Group, Shenghe Resources, and Northern Rare Earth [45].