煤炭行业周报（2024年第47期）：11月制造业PMI扩张加快，期待旺季电煤需求改善

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - Recent market dynamics indicate a narrowing decline in port thermal coal prices, with the CCI5500 thermal coal price index dropping by 7 RMB/ton to 825 RMB/ton. Domestic port thermal coal prices are stabilizing, and with the onset of colder temperatures in December, electricity coal demand is expected to improve [5][52] - The manufacturing PMI for November is reported at 50.3%, indicating a slight increase and suggesting a positive outlook for coal demand [5] - The report highlights key companies with strong dividends and low valuations, including Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua, as well as those benefiting from improved demand expectations [6] Market Dynamics - Thermal Coal: - Port prices have seen a slight decrease, with the average price reported at 818 RMB/ton, while production areas also experienced minor price drops [52] - The coal mining capacity utilization rate is at 93.0%, showing a 0.5 percentage point increase [56] - Coal inventories at major ports have risen by 2.0% to 7,509 million tons [56] - Coking Coal: - Prices for main coking coal at the port remain stable at 1,640 RMB/ton, while production area prices have slightly decreased [75] - The capacity utilization rate for coking coal mines is reported at 90.0%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points [83] - Coke: - The price of coke at Tianjin Port is stable at 1,780 RMB/ton, with production area prices also holding steady [96] - The operating rate of coking plants in North China is reported at 78.4%, down by 1.1 percentage points [96] Industry Outlook - The report anticipates that coal prices will stabilize and potentially rise due to increasing winter storage demand and supply constraints as the year-end approaches. The macroeconomic policies supporting growth are expected to further bolster coal prices [5][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring policy developments and supply-demand dynamics, particularly in light of the upcoming winter season [5][6]