BOSS ZHIPIN(US:BZ) Guoxin Securities·2024-12-02 12:46Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [5][13]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment is experiencing a mild recovery, but corporate payment and recruitment willingness remain low. The company is expected to see a cash collection growth of approximately 10% year-on-year in Q3 2024, slightly below previous expectations of 17.8% [2][10]. - Revenue growth for Q3 2024 is projected at around 14%, also lower than the earlier forecast of 19.2%. Industries such as import-export, manufacturing, and transportation are performing relatively well, while retail-related services and the catering industry are under pressure [2][10]. - The company is focusing on cost control and expects stable profitability despite a challenging operating environment. Marketing efforts will be more targeted and cautious, especially after a one-time brand investment during the Olympics in 2024 [3][11]. - The company has shown confidence in its medium-term prospects by repurchasing over 6.2 million shares in November, totaling more than 300 million yuan, and has repurchased approximately 28.2 million shares this year, amounting to over 1.4 billion yuan, representing 3% of its total share capital [3][12]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised down to 7.24 billion, 8.05 billion, and 9.56 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 3%, 18%, and 18% respectively. The downward revision is attributed to overly optimistic previous profit forecasts and the need for macroeconomic policies to take effect [4][13]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024-2026 is maintained at 2.67 billion, 3.52 billion, and 4.31 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28% [4][13]. - The company maintains a strong market position in user monthly activity, with fluctuations in operational data primarily driven by external macroeconomic conditions. The "direct chat + matching" business model remains highly competitive in the medium term [4][13].