Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "A" for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [1]. Core Insights - Coal prices are expected to remain supported, with the sector's dividend value yet to be fully realized. The report anticipates an increase in heating coal and non-electric coal demand due to falling temperatures and upcoming economic stabilization policies [1][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Coal Industry Dynamic Data Tracking - Thermal Coal: As of November 29, the spot reference price for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim is 827 CNY/ton, with a weekly change of -0.72%. The inventory at northern ports increased by 5.15% to 28.38 million tons [23][1]. - Coking Coal: The price for main coking coal at Jingtang Port is stable at 1640 CNY/ton. The average price for Australian hard coking coal is 216 USD/ton, with a weekly change of -0.46% [35][1]. - Coking and Steel Industry Chain: The average price for metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port is 1880 CNY/ton, remaining stable. The total inventory of coke at independent coking plants increased by 9.73% to 44.22 million tons [54][1]. 2. Coal Transportation - The coastal coal transportation price index is at 890.87 points, reflecting a weekly increase of 1.60%. Long-distance transportation prices from Ordos are 0.22 CNY/ton/km, down by 4.35% [60][1]. 3. Coal Sector Market Review - The coal sector experienced narrow fluctuations, with the CITIC coal index closing at 3631.26 points, a weekly change of -0.05%. The coal chemical sub-sector saw a weekly increase of 1.92% [6][1]. 4. Industry News Summary - The report highlights that as the year-end approaches, some companies may reduce coal production due to safety considerations. The report also notes that the demand for coal is entering a substantial phase due to lower temperatures and upcoming economic meetings [7][1]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend stocks and stable high-dividend varieties, particularly recommending companies like China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy for stable dividends, while highlighting companies like Guanghui Energy and Pingmei Shenma for higher elasticity [7][1].
煤炭行业周报:煤价仍有支撑,板块红利价值待显
Shanxi Securities·2024-12-02 14:19