中国金融行业：市场利率定价自律机制两项《倡议》点评

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry is expected to perform better than the market benchmark over the next 12 months [22]. Core Insights - The report discusses two self-regulatory initiatives aimed at optimizing the management of non-bank interbank deposit rates and introducing "interest rate adjustment clauses" in deposit service agreements, effective from December 1, 2024. These initiatives are expected to enhance the efficiency of monetary policy transmission and reduce financial arbitrage [1][2]. - The initiatives are projected to positively impact banks by lowering funding costs and easing net interest margin (NIM) pressures. The estimated impact on listed banks' NIM is between 1.5 to 1.8 basis points [1][6]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Initiatives Overview - The initiatives establish a benchmark for interbank demand deposit pricing linked to the excess reserve rate (currently 0.35%) and the 7-day reverse repo rate (currently 1.50%) [2]. - They also standardize the pricing reference for early withdrawal of time deposits, ensuring that the early withdrawal rate does not exceed the excess reserve rate [2]. Section 2: Impact on Banks - The linkage of interbank demand deposit rates to policy rates is expected to reduce arbitrage opportunities and enhance transparency in pricing, which has been low due to market liquidity influences [3]. - The average interest cost for state-owned and joint-stock banks' interbank and other financial institution deposits increased by 10.6 basis points year-on-year, indicating a growing reliance on interbank deposits for funding [3]. Section 3: NIM Impact Assessment - The report estimates that the adjustment of interbank demand deposit rates could save interest expenses by approximately 40 to 480 million yuan, leading to an increase in NIM by 1.5 to 1.8 basis points [6][7]. - As of Q3 2024, the total balance of interbank deposits among 42 A-share listed banks was 26.9 trillion yuan, with interbank demand deposits potentially accounting for 50-60% of this total [6][7]. Section 4: Beneficiaries - The report identifies potential beneficiaries of the initiatives, particularly state-owned banks such as Agricultural Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Bank of China, which are expected to benefit more significantly from reduced funding costs [7].