2025年度机械行业策略报告：确定性看装备出海，边际改善看内需相关

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on the machinery industry, particularly highlighting opportunities in equipment exports and domestic demand recovery [2][3]. Core Insights - The machinery industry is experiencing a bifurcation, with segments like oil service equipment and semiconductor equipment showing strong performance, while others like photovoltaic and lithium battery equipment face challenges [24][26]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the "Belt and Road" initiative in driving exports for engineering machinery, particularly in the Middle East [2][39]. - Domestic demand is expected to improve, particularly in sectors such as industrial automation and injection molding machines, with recommendations for leading domestic companies [3][39]. Summary by Sections Equipment Exports - Oil service equipment is poised for growth due to historical opportunities in the Middle East, with recommendations for companies like Jereh and Neway [2]. - Engineering machinery is expected to benefit from both domestic recovery and strong export demand, with key recommendations including SANY Heavy Industry and XCMG [2]. Domestic Demand Improvement - The industrial automation sector is stable with significant market potential, particularly in the 3C and semiconductor industries, recommending companies like Yihada [3]. - The injection molding machine market is set to rebound, with leading companies like Haitian International and Yizumi expected to expand overseas [3]. - The testing services sector is anticipated to benefit from government policies and domestic recovery, with recommendations for companies like Huace Testing and Guodian Measurement [3]. New Technologies & Directions - The humanoid robot sector is on the verge of mass production, with domestic component manufacturers likely to benefit, recommending companies like Harmonic Drive [4]. - The photovoltaic equipment sector is driven by policy and technological advancements, with a focus on companies supporting HJT technology like Maiwei and Jingcheng [4]. Performance Analysis - The machinery industry is currently valued at historical median levels, with notable performance in semiconductor and oil service equipment segments [8][24]. - The report highlights the significant revenue growth in semiconductor equipment and export chains, while sectors like lithium battery equipment are under pressure due to weak downstream demand [24][26]. Stock Performance - As of November 22, 2024, oil service equipment, semiconductor equipment, and engineering machinery have shown significant gains, while testing services and photovoltaic equipment have faced declines [26][34]. - The report notes that companies with market capitalizations over 20 billion yuan have generally performed well, particularly in the semiconductor and engineering machinery sectors [34]. Institutional Holdings - Institutional holdings are notably high in semiconductor equipment, oil service equipment, and export chains, indicating strong investor confidence in these segments [30][32]. - The report indicates a significant pullback in institutional holdings for testing services and lithium battery equipment, reflecting performance challenges [32].