建筑装饰2025年策略：养精蓄锐内外兼修

Industry Overview - The construction and decoration industry is expected to see accelerated growth in fixed asset investment (FAI) in 2025, with a projected growth rate of 5% [2][3] - Infrastructure investment is forecasted to grow by 8.8% in 2024 and 10% in 2025, driven by fiscal expansion and debt resolution policies [3][22] - Real estate investment is expected to decline by 10% in 2024 and 6% in 2025, with policy support helping to stabilize the sector [3][23] - Manufacturing investment is projected to grow by 9.5% in 2024 and 8% in 2025, supported by policies promoting new infrastructure and productivity [3][23] Key Investment Themes - Debt resolution policies, including a 10 trillion yuan debt swap, are expected to improve the financial health of construction companies, particularly state-owned enterprises (SOEs), by accelerating the repair of balance sheets and cash flow statements [3][57] - The "Belt and Road" initiative is expected to gain momentum, with increased strategic importance due to geopolitical tensions, potentially boosting international engineering projects [3][52] - Central government leverage is expected to increase, with a focus on key investment areas such as water conservancy, energy security, and low-altitude economy, which are projected to see significant investment growth [3][74] Sector-Specific Insights - Infrastructure Investment: The sector is expected to benefit from fiscal expansion, with a projected 10% growth in 2025, driven by increased government spending on key projects [3][22] - Real Estate Investment: Policy measures are expected to help the sector stabilize, with a projected decline of 6% in 2025, an improvement from the 10% decline in 2024 [3][23] - Manufacturing Investment: Growth is expected to moderate to 8% in 2025, with support from policies promoting new infrastructure and productivity, despite potential trade tensions [3][23] Key Companies and Valuations - Key SOEs such as China Communications Construction (601800 SH), China State Construction (601668 SH), and China Railway Construction (601186 SH) are highlighted for their low valuations and potential for valuation repair [7][33] - International engineering companies like China Chemical Engineering (601117 SH) and China National Building Materials (600970 SH) are recommended for their exposure to the "Belt and Road" initiative and overseas markets [7][33]