环保行业跟踪周报：UCO退税取消生柴利润上行，长期SAF需求空间大，关注化债下成长/运营重估/弹性

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the environmental protection industry [1]. Core Insights - The cancellation of UCO export tax is expected to boost domestic biodiesel profits in the short term, while the long-term demand for SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) is promising due to regulatory requirements in the EU and pilot applications in China [1][28]. - The national carbon market is approaching its third compliance period, with carbon prices remaining high, which is beneficial for companies involved in carbon trading [1][30]. - The report emphasizes the benefits of debt restructuring in the environmental sector, highlighting the importance of cash flow, asset quality, and valuation recovery, with a focus on growth, operational reassessment, and flexibility [1][34]. Summary by Sections UCO Export Tax Cancellation and SAF Demand - The cancellation of the UCO export tax effective December 1, 2024, is expected to enhance the profitability of domestic biodiesel and SAF producers by lowering raw material costs [1][28]. - Long-term SAF demand is projected to grow significantly, with the EU mandating increasing SAF blending ratios from 2% in 2025 to 70% by 2050, translating to an estimated demand of 40 million tons by 2050 based on 2019 consumption levels [1][29]. National Carbon Market - The third compliance period for the national carbon market is approaching, with companies required to fulfill their carbon quota by December 31, 2024. The carbon price has been rising, reaching 102 yuan/ton as of November 29, 2024, indicating a tightening supply and demand situation [1][30][32]. Debt Restructuring Benefits - The report discusses how debt restructuring can alleviate cash flow issues for environmental companies, leading to improved asset quality and valuation recovery. It recommends focusing on companies with strong operational capabilities and growth potential [1][34]. - Key recommendations include companies like Hongcheng Environment and Xingshan Environment, which are expected to benefit from improved cash flows and stable dividend policies [1][34]. Environmental Equipment and Biodiesel Market - The report notes a 39% year-on-year increase in the sales of new energy sanitation vehicles, with a penetration rate of 11.68% as of October 2024 [1][41]. - Biodiesel profits are expected to rise due to a decrease in the price of raw materials like gutter oil, with the average price of biodiesel at 7,000 yuan/ton and gutter oil at 4,851 yuan/ton, resulting in a profit margin of 716 yuan/ton [1][51]. Lithium Battery Recycling and Electronic Specialty Gases - The report highlights mixed trends in metal prices related to lithium battery recycling, with slight declines in profitability [1][55]. - The electronic specialty gas market remains stable, with prices for xenon gas at 29,300 yuan/m³, indicating a steady demand in the semiconductor industry [1][63].