六维跟踪楼市复苏月报（2024-11）

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and service sectors [1][1]. Core Insights - The real estate market showed signs of recovery in November, with new and second-hand housing transaction areas improving year-on-year. The second-hand housing market reached its highest monthly transaction level since early 2023 [1][1]. - The report highlights that the "combination punch" of real estate policies has positively impacted transaction data, with November's new housing transaction area up by 17% year-on-year, while second-hand housing also saw a 17% increase in 26 cities [1][1]. - Leading indicators suggest that while market activity has slightly decreased month-on-month, it remains at a high level compared to the previous year. Second-hand housing prices have shown signs of stabilizing [1][1]. Summary by Sections Market Activity - November's new and second-hand housing transaction areas improved year-on-year, with second-hand housing achieving a record monthly transaction level since early 2023. New housing transaction area in November increased by 17% year-on-year, while second-hand housing in 26 cities also rose by 17% [1][1]. - The market activity indicators showed a slight month-on-month decline but remained high compared to the previous year, indicating ongoing market resilience [1][1]. Price Indicators - Second-hand housing prices have shown signs of stabilizing, with a slight increase of 0.4% year-on-year in November. The discount rate for second-hand housing prices has narrowed to 14.4%, returning to levels seen in November of the previous year [1][1]. Leading Indicators - According to Beike Research Institute, the second-hand housing market's activity index decreased by 5% month-on-month, while the new housing site index fell by 16%. However, both indices remain at relatively high levels compared to the previous year [1][1]. - The KMI index for second-hand and new housing agents indicates a cautious outlook, with values dropping below the threshold of 50, suggesting a more pessimistic market sentiment [1][1]. Recommended Companies - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: - Chengdu Investment Holdings (600649 CH) with a target price of 6.61 [1][1]. - Chengjian Development (600266 CH) with a target price of 8.45 [1][1]. - Binjiang Group (002244 CH) with a target price of 12.35 [1][1]. - China Overseas Development (688 HK) with a target price of 16.18 [1][1]. - Longfor Group (960 HK) with a target price of 11.12 [1][1].