宏观大类日报：中国景气度持续改善

Economic Overview - China's manufacturing PMI recorded 51.5 in November, the highest since July, indicating expansion and a 1.2 percentage point increase from October[10] - The government plans to manage hidden debts, reducing the total from 14.3 trillion yuan to 2.3 trillion yuan by 2028 through various fiscal measures[3] Market Analysis - Commodity futures suggest a bullish stance on precious metals and the black sector, while maintaining a neutral outlook on other commodities[3] - The oil market is expected to face oversupply pressures in 2024 due to OPEC's increased production and accelerated energy transition[6] Policy Insights - The incoming U.S. administration under Trump plans to impose a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, and an additional 10% on Chinese goods, which may impact global trade dynamics[3] - The People's Bank of China is expected to continue a supportive monetary policy stance, focusing on liquidity and reducing financing costs for businesses and households[10] Risks - Geopolitical risks, particularly in the energy sector, could lead to upward price pressures[7] - Potential global economic downturns and unexpected tightening by the Federal Reserve pose risks to risk assets[7]