AHHL(SH:600761)2024-12-03 02:23Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of RMB 23.86 per share and a reasonable market capitalization of RMB 213 billion [4][16][24]. Core Insights - The company is reallocating RMB 150 million from its convertible bond funds to the "High-end Casting Base Project," terminating the "NEV Construction Project" and "Smart Factory Phase II Project" [2][21]. - The acquisition of 65.15% of "Good Luck Machinery" and 51% of "Anxin Forks" is expected to enhance the company's competitiveness and revenue, reducing related transactions and optimizing governance [3][22][23]. - The high-end casting project aims for an annual production capacity of 200,000 tons, supporting the company's growth during the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans [3][22]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 178.50 billion, RMB 201.84 billion, and RMB 226.25 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.17%, 13.08%, and 12.09% [4][19]. - Net profit is expected to reach RMB 14.17 billion, RMB 16.62 billion, and RMB 19.32 billion for the same years, reflecting growth rates of 10.85%, 17.33%, and 16.21% [4][19]. - The company's gross margin is projected to improve to 22.3% by 2024, maintaining this level through 2026 [5][19]. Business Segmentation - The forklift and parts business is expected to generate revenues of RMB 176.52 billion, RMB 199.47 billion, and RMB 223.41 billion from 2024 to 2026, with a stable gross margin of 22% [13][15]. - Other business segments are anticipated to grow at a rate of 20% annually, maintaining a gross margin of 45% [14][15]. Market Trends - The forklift industry is expected to maintain a growth trend, with domestic sales projected to show resilience despite external pressures, while exports are anticipated to grow significantly [8][10]. - The shift towards automation in manufacturing is expected to drive demand for forklifts, particularly in the context of smart logistics and warehousing [12][10].