煤炭行业定期报告：动力煤全产业链去库持续，煤价不必悲观

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Stronger than the Market" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3] Core Views - The coal industry is experiencing a golden era due to energy security concerns and policy support, with supply constraints driven by strict capacity controls and regional supply differentiation [2] - Coal demand remains resilient despite macroeconomic challenges, with thermal coal prices staying above 800 yuan/ton in 2024, and the report expects coal prices to remain high with strong profit sustainability for coal companies [2] - The report recommends focusing on companies with excellent resource endowments, stable operations, and high dividend payouts, as well as those benefiting from coal-electricity integration and long-term supply tightness [2] Weekly Market Review - The coal index slightly underperformed the CSI 300 index, with a weekly decline of 0.02% compared to a 1.32% rise in the CSI 300 [17] - Year-to-date, the coal index has risen by 3.06%, significantly underperforming the CSI 300's 14.15% gain [17] - The coal sector's PE ratio is 12.3x, ranking third from the bottom among all A-share industries, while the PB ratio is 1.34x, placing it in the lower-middle range [19] Thermal Coal Market - As of November 29, 2024, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price was 818 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton week-on-week (-0.7%) [2] - Coal inventories at power plants, ports, and coal companies are declining, with power plant daily consumption rising due to lower temperatures [2] - Methanol and urea operating rates remain at historically high levels, with methanol at 85.3% (-1.6pct week-on-week) and urea at 83.6% (+1.8pct week-on-week) [2] Coking Coal Market - The Jingtang Port main coking coal price remained stable at 1,640 yuan/ton as of November 29, 2024 [2] - Iron water production slightly declined, but coking coal prices are expected to remain stable due to policy support [2] - The operating rate of large coking plants (>2 million tons) increased to 78.4%, up 0.8pct week-on-week [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Coal production in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia increased slightly, with a combined operating rate of 84.5%, up 0.3pct week-on-week [51] - Power plant coal consumption rose to 820,000 tons/day, up 0.6% week-on-week, while inventories decreased by 4.7 million tons (-0.3%) [53] - Methanol and urea operating rates showed mixed trends, with methanol down 1.6pct and urea up 1.8pct week-on-week [60][62] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong resource endowments, stable operations, and high dividend payouts, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy [2] - Companies benefiting from coal-electricity integration, such as Xinji Energy and Shaanxi Energy, are also recommended [2] - Additionally, companies with potential for production increases and global resource scarcity, such as Shanxi Coking Coal and Pingdingshan Tianan Coal, are highlighted [2]