Core Insights - The cumulative year-on-year decline in industrial enterprise profits continues to expand, with the growth rate of finished product inventory declining for three consecutive months, and asset growth also decreasing [5][6] - In October, the cumulative year-on-year profit decline for industrial enterprises was -4.3%, while the revenue growth was 1.9%. The profit for October alone showed a year-on-year decline of -10.0%, although this was an improvement from -27.1% in the previous month [5][6] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has been in negative territory for 25 consecutive months, with a year-on-year decline of -2.9% in October [5][6] Industrial Performance - The growth rate of finished product inventory for industrial enterprises was 3.9% year-on-year for the first ten months, down from 4.6% previously, marking a shift from an upward trend that ended in July [5][6] - Industrial enterprise assets grew by 4.6% year-on-year, while liabilities grew by 4.5%, indicating a return to a downward trend after a temporary rebound [6] PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI for November was 50.3%, slightly up from 50.1% in October, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing activity. The new orders and production indices also showed increases, while inventory and price indices remained below the critical threshold [6][7] - The new orders index for manufacturing PMI rose to 50.8%, while the new export orders index remained below the critical level at 48.1% [6][7] - The production index for manufacturing PMI increased to 52.4%, and the purchasing quantity index rose to 51.0%, indicating improved supply-side conditions [7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the downward trend in finished product inventory growth has ended, and the continuous expansion of PPI decline indicates a potential for a rebound in the industrial inventory cycle due to ongoing counter-cyclical policies [8]
11月PMI与10月企业利润分析：库存周期正待重启
Yong Xing Zheng Quan·2024-12-03 02:30