银行行业2025年投资策略：从资产荒走向复苏交易

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" for 2025, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a marginal recovery in the performance growth of listed banks in Q1-Q3 2024, driven by two main factors: a narrowing decline in interest margins and improvements in liability costs due to previous deposit rate cuts [2][42]. - The macroeconomic outlook emphasizes the importance of increased fiscal strength, with expectations of a strong fiscal expansion from Q4 2024 to Q2 2025, which is anticipated to boost corporate profits and market expectations [2][42]. - The report suggests a shift from an asset scarcity phase to a recovery trading phase, with recommendations to prioritize investments in banks sensitive to economic recovery, such as China Merchants Bank and Ningbo Bank [2][42]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Elements Summary - The report provides a scoring table for core elements, indicating a mixed outlook on leverage, fiscal policy, monetary policy, and credit conditions, with expectations of improved credit policy and market liquidity [40]. 2. Review of Bank Stocks Since 2024 - The performance of listed banks shows a marginal recovery in growth rates, with contributions from improved interest margins and non-interest income, although credit quality remains stable with some upward pressure on non-performing loans [42]. 3. Macroeconomic Outlook - The report highlights that macro leverage is expected to rise due to increased government debt, and nominal GDP growth is anticipated to stabilize, positively impacting return on invested capital (ROIC) [11][12][13]. 4. Industry Prosperity Outlook - The growth rate of assets is projected to follow the recovery of social financing growth, with expectations of a slight recovery in revenue and net profit for 2025, particularly for state-owned banks [17][24]. 5. Investment Strategy - The investment strategy suggests that the banking sector will transition from an asset scarcity phase to a recovery phase, with a focus on banks that are more sensitive to economic conditions [25].