KSW-TECH(SH:688283)2024-12-03 02:47Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating to "Overweight" (previously higher) due to challenges in some downstream application areas and revised profit forecasts [2] Core Views - KSW-VSA01 spectrum analyzer won the 2024 Global Electronics Achievement Award, showcasing its advanced capabilities with a frequency range of 2Hz to 50GHz, maximum analysis bandwidth of 2GHz, and real-time analysis bandwidth of 2GHz [2] - The company is expanding its product portfolio and downstream applications, particularly in satellite and communication-sensing integration fields, with the release of KSW-WN504 wireless channel emulator [2] - Satellite internet technology development is expected to expand ground communication coverage and integrate with terrestrial communication, creating a broad market for testing and simulation technologies [2] - Communication-sensing integration is a key evolution direction for 5G-A and 6G networks, with applications in smart transportation, low-altitude intelligence, and smart living, driving demand for testing and simulation instruments [2] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024E is projected at 199 million yuan, a 21.6% YoY decline, with a recovery to 266 million yuan in 2025E and 360 million yuan in 2026E [3][9] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted at 48 million yuan for 2024E, 78 million yuan for 2025E, and 115 million yuan for 2026E, reflecting a significant decline in 2024E but strong growth in subsequent years [3][9] - Gross margin remains stable at around 67-68% from 2024E to 2026E, indicating strong pricing power and cost control [3][9] - ROE is expected to improve from 4.8% in 2024E to 9.7% in 2026E, reflecting enhanced profitability and efficiency [3][9] Market Data - The stock's closing price on December 2, 2024, was 27.98 yuan, with a one-year high/low of 69.17 yuan and 16.69 yuan, respectively [4] - The P/E ratio for 2024E is 71x, decreasing to 44x in 2025E and 30x in 2026E, indicating a high valuation in the near term but improving attractiveness over time [3][4] - The company's market capitalization is 2,392 million yuan, with a P/B ratio of 3.6 and a dividend yield of 0.78% [4]