东方战略周观察：存量地缘问题再浮现

Geopolitical Developments - Recent international dynamics focus on two main issues: the evolving situations in Ukraine and the Middle East, and Trump's tariff threats to Mexico, Canada, and BRICS nations[2] - Ukrainian President Zelensky indicated that NATO protection is a condition for ending the "hot phase" of the war, reflecting a decreased expectation of battlefield victories[2] - In the Middle East, a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah shows signs of cooling, while the situation in Syria is escalating with extremist groups gaining ground[2] Trump's Tariff Policies - Trump announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada and a 10% tariff on Chinese goods starting on his first day in office[2] - He also threatened a 100% tariff on imports from BRICS nations unless they commit to not creating a new BRICS currency or supporting alternatives to the US dollar[2] - The potential use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) allows Trump to impose tariffs without congressional approval, which he may utilize for immediate tariff implementation[2] Economic Implications - Short-term aggressive tariff measures could increase supply-side pressures, while mid-term impacts on the US dollar's international status may arise if trade deficits are reduced[2] - Empirical studies suggest limited effects of tariffs on trade balances, indicating that Trump's tariff policies may not significantly conflict with the goal of maintaining the dollar's status[2]