常辅股份：核电产业发展进入提速期，下游需求释放值得期待

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) with a target price of 21.34 RMB [4] Core Views - The company is a leading enterprise in the domestic valve actuator field, benefiting from the accelerated development of the nuclear power industry [4] - The company's Q3 revenue reached 58.82 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 1.02%, with net profit attributable to the parent company increasing by 29.34% to 10.17 million RMB [4] - The company's profitability continues to improve, with a gross profit margin of 41.44% in the first three quarters, up 3.93 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The company's contract liabilities increased by 59.29% year-on-year, driven by the growth in sales contracts, particularly in the nuclear power sector [4] - The nuclear power industry is expected to grow significantly, with China's nuclear power installed capacity projected to reach 120 million kilowatts by 2030, and nuclear power generation expected to account for 10% of total electricity generation by 2035 [4] - The company is expected to maintain rapid growth in revenue and net profit, with projected revenue of 306/393/497 million RMB for 2024-2026, and net profit of 53/71/93 million RMB, representing year-on-year growth of 48.30%/34.80%/30.30% [4] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 176 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 16.04%, with net profit attributable to the parent company increasing by 42.72% to 25.05 million RMB [4] - The company's operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 63.38 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 261.86%, driven by increased sales and labor income, as well as additional compensation from demolition [4] - The company's ROE is expected to increase from 12.0% in 2023 to 19.5% in 2026, reflecting improved profitability and efficiency [7] Industry Outlook - The nuclear power industry is entering a period of accelerated development, with downstream demand expected to increase significantly [2] - China's manufacturing PMI in November 2024 was 50.3%, indicating continued economic recovery and increased demand in downstream industries [4] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the growth of the nuclear power industry, with its early entry into the nuclear power valve actuator market providing a competitive advantage [4] Valuation - The company's current PE ratio is 24x for 2024, expected to decrease to 14x by 2026, indicating potential for valuation upside [4] - The company's PB ratio is expected to decline from 4.3x in 2023 to 2.7x in 2026, reflecting improved asset efficiency [7]