银行业投资策略：短期重视确定性，看好中长期布局机会

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the banking sector [1] Core Views - The government's determination to stabilize growth is significant, and the economic fundamentals are expected to improve steadily in 2025, driven by government investment and a gradual recovery in private investment demand [2][4] - The banking sector is cyclical, and historically, good investment opportunities arise only after credit expansion and private investment recovery [5] - The market remains divided on economic expectations, especially due to uncertainties around US tariff policies, making it difficult to form a consensus on short-term economic improvement [2][4] Short-term Investment Strategy - Focus on "low valuation + stable fundamentals" as the key criteria for stock selection, especially as insurance institutions may shift their investment styles towards the end of the year and early next year [3][15] - Large banks remain attractive due to their relatively low valuations, despite potential dilution of dividend yields from future capital raises [3][15] - Regional banks with stable performance and reasonable valuations, such as Hangzhou Bank and Suzhou Bank, are expected to gain more attention [3][15] Medium to Long-term Investment Strategy - As the effects of growth-stabilizing policies gradually materialize, high-quality growth banks sensitive to economic conditions, such as Ningbo Bank, China Merchants Bank, Changshu Bank, and Ruifeng Bank, are expected to present good investment opportunities [3][15] Policy and Economic Outlook - Fiscal policy is expected to become more proactive in 2025, focusing on both investment and consumption to stimulate domestic demand [4] - Monetary policy will remain moderately loose, with potential reductions in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rates, although the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is expected to decrease by approximately 30bps [4] - The net interest margin (NIM) for the banking sector is projected to narrow by around 10bps in 2025, significantly reducing its drag on earnings growth [4] Historical Performance and Correlation - The PB ratio of the banking sector (Shenwan Index) shows a correlation with the growth rate of total social financing (TSF), with valuation increases typically occurring after economic recovery is confirmed [9][10][11] - Infrastructure investment and private fixed asset investment growth rates have shown a trend of recovery, supporting the banking sector's performance [13][14]