银行业研究框架专题报告：量、价、质继续寻求动态平衡

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable outlook for the banking industry, with a focus on stable profitability and dividends [3][132] Core Views - The banking industry is experiencing intensified competition, particularly among regional banks, leading to a wave of mergers and acquisitions to enhance competitiveness and financial stability [3] - The industry faces significant operational pressures, with challenges in both asset-liability business and intermediary business, particularly due to narrowing interest margins and declining asset quality [3] - The industry is seeking a dynamic balance between volume, price, and quality, with expectations of stable profitability and dividends [3] - The report highlights the importance of stable dividends and recovery potential as key investment themes, with a focus on large banks with dividend advantages and top-performing small and medium-sized banks [3][132] Summary by Relevant Sections Commercial Bank Competitive Landscape - National banks (state-owned and joint-stock banks) dominate the market due to their capital, network, and comprehensive business advantages, while regional banks (city commercial banks and rural financial institutions) are in a more passive position [3] - Regional banks are undergoing deep reforms, with a trend of mergers and acquisitions to enhance market competitiveness and financial stability [3] - The number of banking financial institutions in China includes 486 city commercial banks, 1,620 rural commercial banks, and 29 foreign banks, among others [9] Commercial Bank Business Models - Commercial banks primarily engage in asset-liability business and intermediary business, with the former contributing significantly to revenue through interest income and investment returns [3] - National banks have diversified business models, while regional banks focus more on asset-liability business [3] - The loan structure of commercial banks includes corporate loans (67%), personal loans (32%), and loans to non-bank financial institutions (0.5%) [30] Commercial Bank Performance Attribution - The performance of commercial banks is driven by factors such as asset size, net interest margin, and asset quality, influenced by macroeconomic conditions, regulatory policies, and bank-specific operations [3] - The report notes that interest margins and asset quality are under pressure, particularly in the context of declining interest rates and localized asset quality issues [3] - The loan structure of listed banks shows that corporate loans account for about 60%, personal loans for 35%, and bill discounts for 5% [39] Commercial Bank Operational Outlook - The report expects stable profitability and dividends for leading banks, driven by factors such as government bond expansion, improved asset quality, and capital replenishment by large banks [3][132] - The outlook for the banking industry includes continued pressure on corporate loans, potential relief in personal loans due to policy support, and increased investment driven by government bond expansion [132] - The report also highlights the potential for recovery in intermediary business income, particularly in wealth management and asset management, as the impact of fee reductions in insurance and mutual funds diminishes [132] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on large banks with stable dividends and top-performing small and medium-sized banks with recovery potential [3][132] - The investment strategy emphasizes the importance of stable profitability and dividends, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment, and the potential for recovery in key sectors such as real estate and small and medium-sized banks [132] Commercial Bank Financial Performance - The report provides detailed analysis of the financial performance of various banks, including interest income, fee income, and investment income, highlighting the differences between national and regional banks [25][64] - The report also discusses the impact of macroeconomic factors, regulatory policies, and bank-specific operations on the financial performance of commercial banks [80][132]