货币政策与流动性观察，央行呵护，跨月平稳

Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The market estimates a 66.0% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with a 34.0% chance of maintaining the current rate[15] - The domestic liquidity situation remains stable, with the central bank increasing short- and medium-term liquidity injections[19] - The central bank's monetary policy strength index rose by 0.42 to 104.0, with price indicators contributing 14.0% and quantity indicators contributing 86.0%[18] Bond Issuance and Financing - Government bonds net financing last week was 962.39 billion yuan, significantly up from 542.26 billion yuan the previous week, with a planned issuance of 551.47 billion yuan this week[22] - The net financing for interbank certificates of deposit was 190.68 billion yuan last week, with a planned issuance of 50.65 billion yuan this week, expected to result in a net financing of -201.21 billion yuan[22] - Policy bank bonds net financing remained stable at 147.11 billion yuan last week, with a planned issuance of 16.0 billion yuan this week, expected to result in a net financing of -34.0 billion yuan[22] Exchange Rate Stability - The CFETS index for the yuan rose by 0.01 to 100.07 last week, while the US dollar index fell by 1.72 to 105.78[22] - The onshore yuan exchange rate against the US dollar decreased by 0.01 to 7.23, and the offshore rate fell by 0.02 to 7.24[22]