【粤开宏观】2025年财政如何发力稳经济？赤字率达到4%的三重效果

Economic Outlook - The economic growth rate in China has been shifting since 2010, currently facing cyclical, structural, and external challenges, with a focus on extending the "5 era" of GDP growth[5] - The target for economic growth in 2025 is set at "double 5," aiming for both nominal and real GDP growth rates to reach 5%[7] - The proportion of the population aged 15-64 peaked at 74.5% in 2010 and has decreased to 68.3% in 2023, indicating demographic shifts that will impact economic growth[5] Fiscal Policy Recommendations - The recommended deficit rate should be increased to above 3.5% or even 4.0%, which corresponds to a deficit of approximately 4.8 trillion and 5.5 trillion yuan respectively for 2025[4][49] - The focus should shift from static deficit rates to monitoring expenditure growth, aligning it with nominal economic growth to ensure a proactive fiscal policy[41][45] - Fiscal policy should prioritize expenditure measures over revenue measures during economic downturns to effectively stimulate growth[12][41] Investment and Consumption - Investment in infrastructure and consumption is expected to rebound in 2025, while real estate investment will see a narrowing decline[8] - The structure of investment and consumption is crucial, with a need to balance both to ensure economic and social benefits[8][16] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks for 2025 include economic impacts from Trump's policies, geopolitical tensions, and hidden local government debts[39] - Addressing these risks effectively could transform challenges into opportunities for economic growth[39]