2025年社服行业年度投资策略：线下周期，产品升级

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [3] Core Viewpoints - The offline cycle is approaching, supported by macroeconomic factors, pricing, and consumer policies, driving innovation and experience upgrades, leading to unexpected profit growth [2][3] - The local service competition is easing, with strong competitive advantages for leading companies, and the profitability of instant retail is expected to improve with accelerated front warehouse layouts [2] - The tourism sector is recovering, with travel demand surpassing pre-pandemic levels, particularly among younger consumers seeking experiential consumption [2][3] - The OTA platforms are showing high growth potential and strong barriers, with overall performance exceeding expectations [2][3] - The hotel industry is at the bottom of the cycle, with strategic adjustments expected to enhance efficiency [2][3] - E-commerce is experiencing a mild recovery driven by national subsidies and promotional events, focusing on quality supply [2][3] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The social service and retail sectors have underperformed the market, with the social service sector down 2.27% year-to-date [17] - The net profit of the social service sector increased by 27.3% in Q3 2024, reflecting a significant rebound effect from last year's low base [17] 2. Travel Chain - The travel chain is experiencing continued growth, with tourism numbers and revenue recovering beyond 2019 levels [23] - Policies supporting tourism consumption are expected to further stimulate demand [23] - OTA platforms are seeing improved performance, with revenue growth outpacing the overall tourism market [36] 3. Local Life - The competition landscape is optimizing, with instant retail models showing potential for profitability [88] - The leading player, Meituan, maintains a strong market position, while new entrants are struggling to make significant impacts [88] 4. Offline Retail - The offline retail sector is entering a transformation phase, with a shift towards direct procurement models [115] - CPI improvements are expected to enhance same-store sales performance [115] 5. E-commerce - E-commerce platforms are witnessing a recovery, with national policies stimulating demand and improving the business environment [140] - The focus is shifting from price wars to quality competition among platforms [140] 6. Recommended Stocks - Key stocks to watch include Yonghui Supermarket, Meituan, Alibaba, and Ctrip, among others, as they are positioned to benefit from the ongoing industry trends [2][3]