2025年利率债年度策略：顺势而为，踏节而行

Group 1: Economic Outlook - In 2024, the reliance on external demand for economic growth increased, with net exports contributing 1.1% to GDP, up from -0.6% in 2023[22] - The growth of social financing (社融) is crucial for domestic demand recovery, with projections for 2025 showing potential increases in social financing growth rates to 8.5%, 9.0%, and 9.5%[3] - The anticipated social financing increments for 2025 are estimated at 34.6 trillion, 36.7 trillion, and 38.7 trillion CNY, respectively, compared to an increase of 3.6 trillion, 5.7 trillion, and 7.7 trillion CNY from 2024[3] Group 2: Monetary and Fiscal Policy - A combination of monetary and fiscal policies is necessary to boost social financing and domestic demand, as relying solely on either is insufficient[3] - The government plans to increase its deficit ratio to 4.5%, with new special bonds and local debt replacements totaling 14.3 trillion CNY, of which 11.5 trillion CNY is new issuance[3] - The central bank is expected to maintain a loose monetary policy, with interest rate cuts anticipated to support the bond market[3] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to decline to around 1.8% in 2025, driven by factors such as economic growth, inflation, and funding costs[3] - The bond market is currently experiencing an asset shortage, with non-government bond financing growth decreasing from 8.5% at the end of last year to 6.2% in October this year[3] - The demand for government bonds is expected to increase, while the supply of other bonds may decrease, exacerbating the asset shortage in the bond market[3]