2025年年度策略：乘政策东风，启价值新航

Group 1: Macroeconomic Outlook - The domestic economy is in a slow recovery phase, with GDP growth expected to reach around 5% in 2025 due to policy support[2] - Monetary policy will likely see further interest rate cuts and liquidity support through tools like reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions and relending[2] - Fiscal policy will focus on increasing the deficit ratio and issuing special bonds to stimulate domestic demand and ensure balanced internal and external growth[2] Group 2: Investment Strategy for 2025 - Emphasis on developing new productive forces, with a focus on emerging industries like artificial intelligence and low-altitude economy expected to yield excess returns[4] - Domestic consumption is anticipated to increase, particularly in sectors like food and beverages, home appliances, and automobiles, driven by policy measures to boost effective demand[4] - Debt relief measures will alleviate local government liquidity pressures, enhancing their capacity to stimulate economic growth, particularly in the infrastructure sector[4] - State-owned enterprises (SOEs) are expected to see improved profit growth due to ongoing reforms, presenting investment opportunities in undervalued high-dividend SOEs[4] - Gold is projected to maintain strong demand as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties[4] Group 3: Market Performance and Trends - Major domestic indices have shown positive performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 9.8% and the CSI 300 Index up by 12.7% year-to-date[15] - The non-bank financial sector has outperformed, with a year-to-date increase of 31.2%, driven by policy measures that have boosted market sentiment[18] - International indices have varied performance, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 up by 26.6% and 25.1% respectively, reflecting differing economic conditions globally[22]