建筑行业央企龙头研究系列之二：现金流环比有改善迹象

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the construction industry, specifically focusing on the leading state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in the sector [3] Core Viewpoints - The cash flow situation of leading SOEs in the construction industry has shown signs of improvement in 2024, particularly in the third quarter [9] - Despite the overall challenging environment, the policy-driven recovery in local government debt resolution and real estate policies is expected to benefit these SOEs [11] - The report highlights that reduced capital expenditures and increased financing activities have been key strategies for these companies to navigate the current industry conditions [8] Industry Overview - The construction industry has 163 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 1905.284 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 1646.644 billion yuan [4] - The industry's average price-to-earnings ratio is 10.6 [4] - The industry index has underperformed the CSI 300 index, with a -29.4% decline compared to the broader market [6] Company Performance Analysis - Among the seven major SOEs, China Chemical has the best cash flow performance, with a -4.19% ratio of operating cash flow to revenue in the first three quarters of 2024, a 1.63 percentage point decline year-over-year [7] - Other companies like China Railway Construction, China Railway Group, and China Metallurgical Group have shown relatively better cash flow management due to conservative project progress [7] - Revenue changes for these companies in the first three quarters of 2024 range from -11.71% for China Metallurgical Group to 2.38% for China Chemical [7] Cash Flow Trends - The ratio of cash received from sales of goods and services to revenue has improved from 86.19% in the first half of 2024 to 95.49% in the first three quarters, a 9.29 percentage point increase [9] - Operating cash flow to net operating income improved by 96.92 percentage points in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the first half [9] - Total financing cash inflows reached 1.94 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a 394.088 billion yuan increase year-over-year, with 1.83 trillion yuan coming from borrowing [8] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends China Communications Construction and suggests paying attention to other leading SOEs like China State Construction, China Chemical, China Energy Engineering, China Railway Group, China Railway Construction, China Metallurgical Group, and China Power Construction [11] - These companies are expected to benefit more from policy changes and have strong global competitiveness, particularly in overseas development [11]