大类资产配置月报第41期：2024年12月：注重政策发力方向的确定性与结构性影响

Core Conclusions - The report emphasizes the importance of policy direction and its structural impact on investment strategies [4][6][22] Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to experience fluctuations with support on the downside, while the market remains active in seeking opportunities [4] - The ChiNext Index shows signs of upward movement, but significant upward momentum is still under observation [4] - Growth and consumption styles are expected to outperform cyclical and financial styles, with continued support from economic recovery and domestic liquidity [4][22] Economic Indicators - The report forecasts a 4.6% year-on-year growth in retail sales and a 3.4% increase in fixed asset investment for January, with manufacturing investment expected to grow by 9.2% [13] - The manufacturing PMI for November is reported at 50.3%, indicating a slight improvement, while the service sector PMI remains at 50.1% [16][18] Sector Analysis - The semiconductor sector is highlighted for its strong demand driven by AI-related applications, with companies like Nvidia reporting increased shipments [25] - The lithium battery sector is experiencing a rebound in prices, with carbon lithium prices reported at 78,180 yuan per ton, despite a slight recent decline [29] - The tourism and consumption sectors are expected to benefit from new policies aimed at boosting the economy, particularly during the upcoming holiday seasons [32] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests overweighting U.S. stocks and the dollar while underweighting commodities, reflecting a cautious outlook on global commodity prices [6] - The focus is on sectors such as technology, consumer goods, and real estate, which are anticipated to benefit from policy support and economic recovery [22][35]