宏观周报：套息交易反转或助推美指继续回落

Economic Data - The manufacturing PMI has risen for three consecutive months, reaching 50.3% in November, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from October[9] - Despite the positive trend, over 60% of companies still report insufficient demand, indicating overall demand remains weak[9] - Non-manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 50%, reflecting seasonal adjustments, with construction activity showing a slight decline[11] Real Estate Market - First-tier cities continue to show strong new housing transaction volumes, while second-tier cities are rapidly approaching 2021 levels[14] - As of November 18, listing prices in first-tier cities have rebounded, while second-tier cities saw a slight decline in prices[14] - Overall, the real estate market has performed well since the new policies were implemented, with signs of improvement in second and third-tier cities[14] Bond Market - The 5-year and 10-year government bond yields have reached historical lows, driven by a broad downward trend in interest rates[19] - The central bank is expected to continue using liquidity tools to manage rates, with a target for the 10-year yield set at 2%[19] Currency and Inflation - The overall personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.2% in October, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3%[23] - The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields have experienced a rapid decline, influenced by traders taking profits and seasonal factors[24] - The yen is expected to appreciate gradually, contributing to downward pressure on the dollar[26]