【浙商宏观II李超】11月经济:培风图南,无远弗届

Economic Growth Outlook - The economic fundamentals in November 2024 continue to show signs of recovery, with a slight GDP growth expected in Q4, aiming for around 5% growth for the year[2][18]. - Industrial production is projected to grow by 5.2% year-on-year in November, supported by preemptive policies aimed at stabilizing growth[3][20]. Consumer and Retail Trends - Social retail sales are expected to increase by 4.5% year-on-year in November, slightly down from 4.8% in October, with the automotive sector showing continued recovery due to promotional activities[4][22]. - The real estate market shows signs of recovery, with sales area in 30 major cities turning positive, indicating support for post-real estate consumption[4][24]. Investment Dynamics - Fixed asset investment growth is estimated at 3.3% for January-November 2024, with infrastructure investment up by 4.4% and manufacturing investment up by 9.3%, while real estate investment declines by 9.9%[5][25]. - Manufacturing investment is a strong variable in the macroeconomic landscape, with a projected growth of 9.3% year-on-year for January-November 2024[5][32]. Export and Import Performance - Exports in November are expected to grow by 6.4% year-on-year, driven by a "cost-performance dividend" that enhances competitiveness in various sectors[7][51]. - Imports are projected to decline by 1.8%, but there is potential for gradual improvement following recent policy measures[7][51]. Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise by 0.5% year-on-year in November, indicating a slight recovery, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to remain stable at -2.9% year-on-year[8][52]. - The CPI reflects pressures in industrial consumer goods, while service prices show a slight increase due to seasonal effects[8][54]. Employment Situation - The urban unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 5.0% in November, with industrial and service sectors providing some support for job absorption[9][53]. - Youth employment remains a significant concern, with policies aimed at supporting job creation for recent graduates[9][53]. Financial Data Insights - New RMB loans in November are projected at 600 billion, a decrease of approximately 490 billion year-on-year, reflecting a slight decline in growth rate to 7.7%[10][10]. - The total social financing (TSF) is expected to increase by 2.5 trillion, maintaining a growth rate of around 7.8%[10][10].